Alright, let’s talk about finding those home run bets for today. It’s become a bit of a routine for me, something I actually enjoy digging into each morning.
First thing I do, usually after grabbing some coffee, is just pull up the full slate of MLB games. See who’s playing who and where. Just getting the lay of the land, you know?
Looking at the Pitchers
This is where I spend a good chunk of time. I start looking at the starting pitchers for each game. Who’s on the mound? What I’m really hunting for are guys who tend to give up the long ball. You can usually find stats on home runs allowed per nine innings, stuff like that. I’m not using any fancy software, just browsing basic stats sites.
- I look for pitchers with higher HR/9 numbers.
- I also check if they give up a lot of hard contact.
- Sometimes, I see a pitcher who’s been struggling lately, maybe giving up more runs or homers than usual. That’s a potential target.
It’s not rocket science, just trying to spot a pitcher who might serve one up today.
Finding the Hitters
Once I’ve got a few pitchers circled, I flip it around and look at the batters they’re facing. Who on the opposing team has the power? Who matches up well?
Key things I check:
- Power Numbers: Obviously, I look for guys with good ISO (isolated power) or just a solid track record of hitting home runs.
- Batter vs. Pitcher History: Sometimes a specific batter just owns a specific pitcher. If I see a guy has hit multiple homers off today’s starter in the past, my ears perk up. Though, I don’t put too much weight on this if the sample size is tiny.
- Hot Streaks: Is anyone swinging a hot bat? Check their recent game logs. A guy who’s hit a couple bombs in the last week might be feeling it.
- Lefty/Righty Matchups: Some hitters mash against lefties, others against righties. Gotta consider that split based on the starting pitcher.
I start making a shortlist of potential sluggers based on these matchups.
Don’t Forget the Conditions
This part’s important too. Where is the game being played?
- Ballpark Factors: Some stadiums are just launching pads. Think Coors Field or Great American Ball Park. A game in a hitter-friendly park definitely bumps a guy up my list. Others are pitcher’s parks where homers go to die.
- Weather: Wind is a big one. Wind blowing out? That helps carry the ball. Wind blowing in? Makes it tougher. Temperature can play a role too; balls tend to fly a bit better in warmer air. I always do a quick check on the forecast for the games I’m interested in.
Making the Picks
So after looking at the pitchers, the hitters, the park, and the weather, I usually have a handful of names. Sometimes it’s obvious, other times I have to make some tougher choices. I try not to overthink it too much. Often, I just go with the guys who tick the most boxes – good power, facing a hittable pitcher, decent conditions.
Maybe I’ll narrow it down to two or three guys I feel best about. It’s never a guarantee, that’s why they call it betting, right? But doing this little bit of homework makes me feel like I’ve at least got a reason behind my picks, instead of just throwing darts.
That’s pretty much my process. Nothing too crazy, just looking at the matchups and trying to find an edge. Good luck with your own picks today!
