So, I got really into trying to figure out the Cavaliers games last season. Not just watching, you know, but actually trying to predict the outcomes before they happened. It started pretty simple.
I figured, okay, let’s get organized. I opened up a spreadsheet. My thinking was, track the basic stuff. Wins, losses, who they were playing, was it home or away. Pretty standard stuff. I put in the schedule, and after each game, I’d diligently fill in the score, mark the W or L.
First steps felt good. I started seeing patterns, or at least I thought I did. Like, ‘Oh, they always play better after two days rest,’ or ‘They struggle against teams with strong centers.’ I even started adding little notes, trying to factor in injuries or if a key player had a bad night.
Getting Deeper (Maybe Too Deep)
Then I thought, this isn’t enough. Need more data. So I started digging around for more stats. Things like:
- Points per game
- Opponent points per game
- Rebound difference
- Maybe even simple shooting percentages
The problem was, grabbing all this stuff manually after every game, sometimes late at night, it turned into a real chore. My spreadsheet got bigger and messier. I had formulas trying to weigh different factors. Honestly, half the time I wasn’t even sure if my calculations made sense.
The results? A real mixed bag. Some weeks, I felt like a genius. I’d call a couple of tricky games right and feel like I’d cracked the code. Then the next week, everything would go sideways. Teams I expected them to beat would blow them out, or they’d pull off an upset I totally didn’t see coming. It was humbling, really.
Hitting the Wall
I spent a good chunk of time on this whole prediction thing. Talking about it with buddies, tweaking my spreadsheet constantly. It started feeling less like fun and more like homework. I was getting bogged down in numbers instead of just enjoying the flow of the game, the surprising moments, the dunks, you know?
Then work got crazy busy for a few weeks, and I just didn’t have the time to keep up with updating everything meticulously. I missed a few games’ worth of data entry. And you know what? It was kind of a relief.
I still watched the Cavs, maybe even more closely because I wasn’t distracted by my prediction spreadsheet. I realized just being a fan, riding the highs and lows without trying to quantify everything, was actually way more enjoyable for me.
So, I pretty much ditched the serious prediction project. My spreadsheet’s probably gathering dust somewhere on my hard drive. Now, I just watch the games. I’ll still have my gut feelings, make guesses with friends, but I’m not trying to build some foolproof system anymore. It’s just basketball, unpredictable and exciting. And honestly, that’s why I started watching in the first place.
