Okay, so I’ve been trying to get a handle on predicting college football games, specifically Fresno State. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, honestly. Here’s how I did it.
I started by just watching games. Lots of them. I figured the more I watched, the better I’d get at understanding the teams, their players, and how they play. This was fun, but not exactly scientific.
Diving into the Data
Then I realized I needed some actual data. I started digging around online for stats. I found some basic stuff – scores, wins, losses – you know, the usual. I put all this into a spreadsheet. It looked impressive, but it didn’t really tell me anything I didn’t already know.
So, I kept digging. I looked for more detailed stats: things like yards per game, turnovers, penalties… anything I could get my hands on. I added these to my ever-growing spreadsheet. Now we’re getting somewhere!
Trying to Make Sense of It All
The next challenge was figuring out how to actually use all this data. I tried a few simple things at first. Like, I compared Fresno State’s average points per game to their opponents’. If Fresno State usually scored more, I’d predict they’d win. Super basic, I know.
It… kinda worked? Sometimes? Not really. My predictions were all over the place.
My own Model!
I wanted something better. So, I started playing around with different ways to combine the stats. I gave some stats more “weight” than others. For example, I figured turnovers were probably more important than, say, the number of punts. It was a lot of trial and error.
I’d tweak the weights, run the numbers, and see how well my “model” (if you can even call it that) predicted past games. Then I’d tweak it again, and again, and again.
Testing, Testing, 1, 2, 3
- First try: Total disaster. Predicted almost every game wrong.
- Second try: Slightly better, but still pretty bad.
- Third Try: Okay, now we are getting somewhere.
I kept at it. I read some stuff online about predictive modeling (way over my head, most of it), and tried to incorporate some of the basic ideas. I even started learning a tiny bit of coding to help me automate the process.
Eventually, I got to a point where my predictions were… decent. Not perfect, by any means, but definitely better than just guessing. I could actually predict Fresno State games with a little bit of confidence!
It’s still a work in progress, of course. I’m constantly tweaking and refining my approach. But it’s been a fun learning experience, and it definitely makes watching the games more interesting!
